A Bitcoin cycle risk metric. One number to follow through the everyday crypto noise.

Built by someone who wanted the number to exist and couldn't find one he trusted.

It's a percentile rank against Bitcoin's own history. A reading of 0.15 means only about 15% of past days looked cheaper on these measurements than today. It isn't a price target or a forecast.

Gresham's Law says bad money drives out good — people spend the weaker currency and hold the stronger one. The index is built for the holding half of that instinct.

No, and we don't claim it does. It describes conditions in zones, not moments. The exact 2025 cycle top printed 0.73 — outside the distribution zone — and that reading stays in the public record.

The index always describes the previous day's settled close — a day's closing data only exists once the day is over, and we'd rather publish a confirmed number late than an unconfirmed one early. The publication time itself varies, usually late morning UTC, occasionally later, because the job runs on free scheduling infrastructure that isn't guaranteed to fire on time. Every reading carries the date of the data it describes, so you always know exactly what you're looking at, and the site flags it if the data falls more than 48 hours behind. We're working on making the publication time more consistent.

In practice the delay changes little. The index moves by about 0.003 on a typical day, and even on the twenty largest single-day price moves since 2014 — a median of 17% — it shifted by less than 0.01. It is built to describe seasons, not sessions. If it moved enough for a day to matter, it would be the wrong kind of instrument.

Because it isn't built to. The published reading is a seven-day average, so any single day carries about a seventh of the weight, and the heaviest input — monthly RSI — is measured on monthly closes and barely registers a day at all.

The effect is stronger than most people expect. From a reading of 0.32, a one-day price move of any size, however large, tops out near 0.39. Reaching the distribution zone doesn't require a dramatic day; it requires elevated conditions that persist for weeks.

That's deliberate. A number that jumped with the price would just be the price again, and you'd have to watch it. It's also why the exact top day of a cycle rarely produces the highest reading.

No. It's an informational and educational tool. The index describes market conditions; the strategies are published rulesets, not recommendations. All of information presented are historical sumulation; past results do not indicate future performance. Crypto-assets are highly volatile and this is not reccomendation on where and how to allocate your investment funds. 

Then this does worse than simply holding — in a tested scenario where Bitcoin rises fiftyfold with no serious drawdown, the strategy trails a plain schedule by 54%. The reason it isn't worse: the trims are small and weekly, 1.5% or 4% of the stack, so the position is never sold off on the way up and the core keeps riding. That's the honest trade — protection against cycle mistiming, paid for with some upside if the cycles stop.

It is An independent project from Slovakia. It was built with AI assistance, directed and edited by a human — we'd rather say that plainly than let anyone discover it later.